How shut China's export gate is for US-bound supply of each critical mineral, scored 0–10 by month. History runs to October 2026. The two projections are what the rules as written schedule, and an optimistic path in which some suspensions are renewed.
Columns. Weight is the share of total market value (2025 world production × 2025 average price), the same weights the aggregate uses. Price is the current ex-China price per tonne of contained product where one exists, otherwise the China price (see basis). Annual market is 2025 world production × current price. Gate volatility is the standard deviation of 12-month changes in the gate score, 2006 to now. Political gate is our 0–10 judgment of how far the gate's moves have tracked US–China politics rather than resource management. 10 means the moves are retaliation timed to US actions.
Until 2024 the two prices moved together. China's export value per tonne sat within about 10–20% of the Western price. China's reported metal exports stop after Aug 2024, when export controls took hold. Since then the only China-side prices are domestic quotes, and the West has traded at 1.3–1.5x them. In October 2026: Rotterdam about $18,650/t, Shanghai 1# ingot about $12,400/t ex-VAT.
Sources (all free). West annual: USGS Minerals Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries (New York dealer price to 2017, Argus 99.65% CIF from 2018). US imports and China exports: UN Comtrade, HS 811010 (unwrought antimony), value ÷ net weight, months under 20 t dropped. West quotes: USGS MCS 2026 and Fastmarkets Rotterdam. China domestic: 100ppi Shanghai 1# ingot, CNY/t including 13% VAT, converted at FRED CNY/USD with VAT removed. Monthly Rotterdam and Chinese domestic histories exist only behind paid subscriptions.
How to read it. The gap tracks the gate. Where China rations exports the most (gallium, yttrium, dysprosium, terbium), Western buyers pay 7–130x the Chinese domestic price. Where the gate is softer or the West has its own supply (tellurium, NdPr, indium, antimony), the premium is 1.2–1.6x. The customs history shows the same thing over time. Antimony, tungsten and bismuth traded near parity for 15 years. The rare-earth metals basket jumped to 4–5x in 2024–25.
Sources and caveats. Today's prices are public trade-press quotes of Fastmarkets, Argus, SMM, S&P, Benchmark, CREIA and Trading Economics. Chinese domestic prices are converted to USD with 13% VAT removed. Dates vary from Jun to Oct 2026, and several Western quotes are secondary. Scandium has no public Western quote. Samarium's "West" figure is China's export (FOB) price. The graphite Western quote is from mid-2025. History comes from UN Comtrade (HS6 value ÷ net weight; years under 20 t dropped). Customs values mix grades and lag spot prices, and the two rare-earth baskets mix elements, so read the history for direction, not level. Bismuth's code was split in 2022, so its series ends in 2021. Gallium, germanium, indium and tellurium share mixed customs codes and have no usable trade history.
Scores are judgment, not data. Each score translates a policy event into the scale above. Pre-2015 scores reflect China's export quotas and duties on rare earths, tungsten, antimony, indium and graphite. The WTO ruled against them in 2014, and China removed them in 2015.
Nothing is scheduled to come down. Every control in force (Ga/Ge 2023, graphite 2023, antimony 2024, tungsten/bismuth/indium/tellurium Feb 2025, seven rare earths Apr 2025) is a standing rule with no end date. Only the two Nov 2025 suspensions carry dates, and when they expire the gate goes up. Individual export licences expire, typically after 6–12 months, but that changes how much flows, not the gate.
Scheduled (red dotted, the default). Every rule runs on its written dates and nothing new is agreed. On Nov 10, 2026 the Oct 2025 package returns (Dy/Tb/Sm/Y/Sc 9, NdPr 7, graphite 7). On Nov 27, 2026 the US ban returns (Ga/Ge/Sb 10).
Optimistic (green dashed). A probability-weighted path that assumes renewal is more likely than not for the US ban, and roughly a coin flip for the rare-earth package, with the risk compounding each year: score = renewed + p × (scheduled − renewed).
The probabilities are judgment. The US-side ban on Chinese-origin tungsten in DoD supply chains (Jan 1, 2027) is a US gate and is not scored.
Key events. Sep 2010 rare-earth halt to Japan. Jan/May 2015 quotas and duties removed. Aug 2023 Ga/Ge licensing. Dec 2023 graphite licensing. Sep 2024 Sb licensing. Dec 2024 US ban on Ga/Ge/Sb. Feb 2025 W/Bi/In/Te licensing. Apr 2025 seven-rare-earth licensing. Oct 2025 expansion. Nov 2025 truce.
Prices. Fastmarkets, SMM and trade-press quotes, Sep–Oct 2026. Ex-China rare-earth and gallium prices are thin over-the-counter quotes. Cobalt and titanium sponge have no Chinese export gate and are excluded.